|
|
Small Number of Miners and
Split of the Pie
- The
market demand for lithium carbonate equivalents is currently
close to 100K tonnes per annum and is supplied by the
following split for market supply:

Figure 1:
Source; Market Equities Research Group Q4/09 Report |
|
Currently lithium
production supply and demand are relatively in balance, however the
possibility of a lithium production supply deficit is a realistic scenario
as the problem with predicting demand is that no one actually knows just
how enthusiastic developing trends will be. The future use of lithium in
transportation as a preferred medium of energy storage, among other
uses, has earmarks of going
viral in the next couple decades. New entrants and the ramping up of
production from existing producers is expected by some industry
forecasts to keep supply in step with demand, but the fear of possible
supply chain interruption is a motivator for major industrial end users
to take preemptive measures and ensure they are strategically involved
now. What is not necessarily factored into the forecast assumptions is
that there will not only be a "demand" but rather a "cultural push" that
will forever change the future of transportation as we know it and a
tight supply market carries risk for end industrial users of lithium.
Capital investment now in the form of strategic partnerships are minimal
to offtake partners in comparison to risk of loss by not taking action
to protect the billions of dollars of sales in which lithium is an
integral component, however what is minimal to major industrial
manufacturers can translate to a windfall for shareholders of certain
junior development lithium companies.
Necessity of Offtake Agreements
for New Entrants
The current
suppliers of lithium in the market place are few (see chart to the
right) and new participants need the involvement of offtake partners,
among other necessities, to
exist as producers successfully.
Offtake agreements allow
producers to sell portions of future production. An offtake agreement is
normally negotiated prior to the construction of a facility in order to
secure a market for the future output of the facility. These offtake
partners could approach the existing majors for long term contracts but
they have their own reasons to not want to deal with the existing
companies and their participation in one or more juniors is what is
going to make a difference for in bringing new entrants over the finish
line and into production. it is a symbiotic relationship as lithium
producers can't walk into the market blindly and think they are going to
produce lithium and find a home for it as there is no spot market, there
might be one in the future but today that's just not part of the
equation.
List of recently announced
strategic partnerships: • Galaxy Resources with Mitsubishi of Japan, •
Canada Lithium with Mitsui of Japan, • Lithium Americas Corp. with Magna
International Inc. and Mitsubishi Corp., • Lomiko Metals with Japan, Oil,
Gas and Metals National Corporation, • Minera Santa Rita (non public)
with Bollore and Eramet of France, • Orocobre with Toyoto TushoToyota
Group of Japan, • Pan American Lithium with South Korean POSCO
Pohang Iron and Steel Company.
A Canaccord Adams analyst
noted the following on strategic partnerships of late “At
the very least these partnerships are inexpensive hedges and levers for
use against the lithium oligopoly but they should also be viewed as
sincere expressions of a desire for new, diverse sources of lithium as
end-users anticipate the penetration of e-cars well ahead of that
perceived in North America”.
------ ------ ------ ------ ------
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Noteworthy New Participants Positioned for
Near Term Lithium Production
The following companies
are distinguished from other lithium juniors as they have made corporate announcements regarding intentions to engage in near
term production and have followed up with action to support plans to
actually and realistically come online near term. The mentioning of
these companies is NOT an endorsement as certain ones have advantages
over others and require in-depth analysis; some of these (without
mentioning names) have substantial permitting issues to battle through,
jurisdictional/political risk issues, and some even have serious
questions about the actual economic viability due to the nature of their
resource.
1) Orocobre Limited
(ASX: ORE) (corporate
website). Orocobre's Salar de Oloraz brine deposit in the Puna
Region of Argentina is being touted as a near term large scale, low cost
lithium-potash brine resource operation. Orocobre had joined forces with
Toyoto Tusho to develop Salar de Oloraz, and expects to complete the
Definitive Feasibility Study on the project in mid 2010, with initial
commercial production starting in late 2011.
2) Simbol Mining Corp.
(private company) (corporate
website) has exclusive mineral rights contracts with geothermal
developers. Information is guarded by Simbol as they are private however
they are believed to be newly operational and actually producing lithium
and growing.
3) Canada Lithium Corp.
(TSX-V: CLQ) (corporate
website) has initiated a prefeasibility study on its hard rock
Quebec Lithium Project near Val d'Or, Quebec. CLQ.V has announced
anticipated plans for mine construction in 2011. Canada Lithium Corp is
currently completing a Pre-Feasibility Study for the development of the
project that anticipates production of up to 19,200 tonnes of 99.5%
lithium carbonate product annually, commencing around 2012.
4) Galaxy Resources
Limited (ASX: GXY) (corporate
website) is finalizing plans to establish a lithium carbonate
chemical facility in Jiangsu Province, producing 17,000 tpa of lithium
carbonate. We note none of this product is likely to enter the North
American market and will be for internal consumption in China.
5) Reed Resources Ltd.
(ASX: RDR) (corporate
website) in JV with Mineral Resources Ltd. (ASX: MIN) have announced
2010 production start-up of hard rock project in Western Australia.
6) Western Lithium
Corporation (TSX-V: WLC) (corporate
website) has received approval for its plan of operation for its
hectorite clay Kings Valley Lithium Project in Nevada.
Anticipated addition to
list: See case study below on Pan American Lithium Corp. (TSX-V: PL)
(US Listing: PALTF); Pan American is advancing the development of
geothermal brines at Cierro Prieto, Baja California, Mexico with the
goal of producing 5,000 tpy lithium carbonate. Pan American also possess
nine salars in in Atacama Region III, Chile where surface water lakes
offer quick and cost effective means to calculate an initial resource
estimate, and offer quick access to a source that can be processed cost
effectively. Pan American Lithium possesses a relatively short timeline
into production and is considered to be positioned to be quicker to
market than any other new lithium related projects in the market.
------ ------ ------ ------ ------
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Forward Looking Demand for Lithium
Li-ion in automotive use to surge
Interest and demand in
lithium minerals has increased significantly, driven by the increased
importance and production of lithium-ion batteries as the next
generation power source. Current global lithium demand (measured as
Lithium Carbonate Equivalent (LCE)) is below 115,000 t – mostly in
ceramics, glass and Li-Ion batteries in consumer electronics. This
demand is estimated by numerous respected sources to grow to close to
300,000 t by 2020 with the bulk of the growth in lithium batteries
driven by electric vehicles, however these estimates are an educated
guess on the popularity of trends.

Figure 2. Actual and Forecasted Breakdown of
Lithium-contained demand
Source: representation of
known data and forward looking general consensus estimates/guesstimates
------ ------ ------ ------ ------
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Case Study:
Pan American Lithium Corp.
(TSX-V: PL) (US Listing: PALTF) -
Lithium, Potash
Exceptional risk-reward scenario
with fast track to production planed for geothermal brine in
Mexico and one of nine Salars in Chile
For
exposure to the lithium sector Pan American Lithium Corp. (TSX-V:
PL) (US Listing: PALTF) offers the best risk-reward
characteristics as PL.V possesses advanced projects with
near term production potential in stable mining friendly
jurisdictions. Their Mexican geothermal brines have the
existing infrastructure and feedstock to facilitate low cost
lithium production. Pan American's Chilean Salars (located
in the Atacama Region III) are among the best in the world
and are highly coveted assets to anxious global industrial
manufactures looking to ensure they have adequate supplies
of lithium to satisfy demands.
Key characteristics
which will drive the success of Pan American Lithium Corp.:
•
Superior quality lithium
brines.
•
Located in stable, mining
friendly jurisdictions.
•
Figured to be in the lowest
part of the lowest quartile of operating costs globally.
•
Designed and operated by a
management team with considerable Latin America mining expertise.
•
Appears Pan American
Lithium be quicker and cheaper than other junior company competition to
resource estimate, feasibility, and production.
•
Ideally suited to be
supported by one or more large, international, strategic offtake or
joint venture partners.
|
Upside Valuation/Summary:
Pan American Lithium
Poised for Significant Upside
Revaluation
-
With only ~31M shares outstanding
(~34M fully diluted) and trading under CDN$0.80 PL.V is poised
for significant upside revaluation. PL.V is positioned to be
first to market in an environment where, among other industries,
auto manufacturers are looking to control the lithium supply
chain. The advanced nature and quality of their projects on two
fronts ideally positions investors in PL.V to profit from what
is quickly being acknowledged as the strongest lithium story in
the market. |
Pan American Lithium Corp.
is a new mineral development and exploration mining company
listed on the TSX Venture Exchange (ticker symbol PL) (US
Listing: PALTF). PL.V was formed to develop attractive,
low cost and well-located lithium projects.
Pan American Lithium is advancing lithium brine projects in
Chile's Atacama Region III and possesses a relatively short
timeline into production on their Cierro Prieto geothermal
brine mineral recovery project in Baja California, Mexico.
Nine Salars, Atacama
Region III, Chile - 100% owned
by Pan American Lithium Corp.
|

Figure 3.
Pan American's
Laguna Verde Salar, Chile One
of nine salar projects Pan American Lithium owns in
Chile. The surface lake provides an advantage to quickly
and cost effectively calculate a resource estimate and
offers easy access to a source that should be
competitive. |
The PL.V salars are considered
among the best salars in the world prospective for Li
production. Pan American's Laguna Verde Project is located
in the lithium triangle which also hosts SQM’s (world’s
largest producer of lithium carbonate) Salar del Atacama
facilities. Pan American's Laguna Verde Project is the
company's primary Chilean salar to be advanced with the goal
of near term low cost lithium production. A resource
estimate study on the Laguna Verde Salar is expected to be
completed by April 30, 2010.
The
Advantage of Surface Lakes on Pan American Lithium's Salars
Quick and cost effective
to calculate a resource
• Quick access as a source to be processed cost
effectively
Several of the PL.V salars have The PL.V salars are
considered among the best salars in the world prospective
for Li production. Pan American's Laguna Verde Project is
located in the lithium triangle which also hosts SQM’s
(world’s largest producer of lithium carbonate) Salar del
Atacama facilities. Pan American's Laguna Verde Project is
the company's primary Chilean salar to be advanced with the
goal of near term low cost lithium production. A resource
estimate study on the Laguna Verde Salar is expected to be
completed by April 30, 2010. The PL.V salars are considered
among the best salars in the world prospective for Li
production. Pan American's Laguna Verde Project is located
in the lithium triangle which also hosts SQM’s (world’s
largest producer of lithium carbonate) Salar del Atacama
facilities. Pan American's Laguna Verde Project is the
company's primary Chilean salar to be advanced with the goal
of near term low cost lithium production. A resource
estimate study on the Laguna Verde Salar is expected to be
completed by April 30, 2010. key advantage of significant
surface brine lakes and thus are likely substantially less
costly and faster to establish an initial resource by
measuring the surface brine volume and concentration. A
simple bathymetric survey of the lake-bottom and sampling
will establish volume and grade. Beneath their salar lakes
PL.V will also have brines, probably in higher
concentration, and there the geologist’s task will be the
same as all other companies who own salars with dry crustal
surfaces. However the distinction is that PL.V’s surface
water lakes should be comparatively inexpensive and far
faster to establish a resource and will also allow quick
access to a source of lithium and other constituents that
can be processed for extraction.
Based on historical sampling data, Pan American Lithium's
Laguna Verde Salar surface water body, with a surface area
of 15 square kilometers, is expected to be above 200 ppm in
lithium content. The company is performing the work to
establish grade and volume of the lake to be stated in a
compliant NI 43-101 Technical Report. PL.V has publicly
released information regarding its initial depth soundings
of Laguna Verde, which show the average lake depth to be 33
meters. Pan American's ultimate production costs of lithium
carbonate are projected to be the lowest quartile in the
world.
Geothermal
Brine Mineral Recovery Project, Baja Mexico
|

Figure 4.
Geothermal Brines Project,
Mexico. PL.V has rights to the brines from the 2nd
largest geothermal facility in the world, a ~720MW
facility with plans to expand. |
Pan American Lithium has
rights to commercial scale lithium recovery from brines
produced at the 2nd largest geothermal plant in the
world. 5.7 Million gallons per day brine flow, plans for
fast track to production, sizeable interest in potential
for an initial 5,000 tonnes of li carbonate per annum.
The project has exceptional existing infrastructure.
Scoping Study Now Underway:
The Cierro Prieto Project will exploit geothermal brines
produced from deep wells which feed an evaporation lagoon
with a surface area of 14.3 square kilometres. Pan American
intends to systematically sample the concentrated brines in
the lagoon and submit samples for analysis by a certified
laboratory. Concurrently, Pan American will determine an
estimate of the volume of the lagoon and its contained
brines, either from historical construction data or from
current depth measurements. Pan American believes that,
globally, these geothermal brines are potentially among the
lowest cost sources of lithium and may offer the quickest
route to production.
Currently Pan American Lithium has an arrangement to be
owner of an indirect 25% interest in the lithium part of the
project at the geothermal brine mineral recovery project;
PL.V would receive a direct carry (no cost to PL.V) through
to lithium production, without spending any money. As the
project develops there is a possibility PL.V will take a
greater interest as they may be relied upon to bring project
financing. It is also anticipated that PL.V will be awarded
a subcontract to be the mining operator of all
elements/resources at the project, as well as the
subcontracted marketing operator for disposition of all
lithium and potentially all other products.
NOTE By-products are
critical in adding value: Pan American Lithium's brine
projects in Chile (100% PL.V owned) and Mexico (as the mine
operating and marketing agreements develop) will give PL.V
the opportunity to recover other elements/resources such as
potash.
|