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Ranking according to
attractiveness of mining policies
-
The ranking is essentially a composite index that measures
the effects on exploration of government policies including
uncertainty concerning the administration, interpretation,
and enforcement of existing regulations; environmental
regulations; regulatory duplication and inconsistencies;
taxation; uncertainty concerning native land claims and
protected areas; infrastructure; socioeconomic agreements;
political stability; labor issues; geological database; and
security.
The third column
ranks according to whether or not a jurisdiction’s mineral
potential under the current policy environment encourages or
discourages exploration. Obviously this takes into account
mineral potential, meaning that some jurisdictions, which
rank high in the policy ranking but have limited hard
mineral potential, will rank lower in the mineral potential,
while jurisdictions with a weak policy environment but
strong mineral potential will do better. This third column
is important since "good policies" are of little use if
little resources can be expected to be retrieved.
|
2008/2009 |
|
Ranking of that |
|
Ranking according |
Name of the |
jurisdictions
mineral |
|
to attractiveness |
Jurisdiction |
potential relative |
|
of mining policies |
|
to policies |
|
1 |
Quebec |
2 |
|
2 |
Wyoming |
15 |
|
3 |
Nevada |
4 |
|
4 |
Alberta |
36 |
|
5 |
Nfld. & Labrador |
16 |
|
6 |
New Brunswick |
24 |
|
7 |
Manitoba |
29 |
|
8 |
Chile |
1 |
|
9 |
Saskatchewan |
5 |
|
10 |
Ontario |
32 |
|
11 |
Utah |
8 |
|
12 |
Nova Scotia |
51 |
|
13 |
Sweden |
6 |
|
14 |
Finland |
3 |
|
15 |
Yukon |
28 |
|
16 |
South Australia |
10 |
|
17 |
Alaska |
14 |
|
18 |
Botswana |
17 |
|
19 |
Norway |
31 |
|
20 |
Nth'n Territory |
n/a |
|
21 |
Western Australia |
7 |
|
22 |
Spain |
45 |
|
23 |
New South Wales |
12 |
|
24 |
British Columbia |
44 |
|
25 |
Queensland |
13 |
|
26 |
Ireland |
46 |
|
27 |
Arizona |
39 |
|
28 |
Mexico |
9 |
|
29 |
Victoria |
33 |
|
30 |
Peru |
11 |
|
31 |
Tasmania |
25 |
|
32 |
South Dakota |
38 |
|
33 |
Mali |
26 |
|
34 |
Namibia |
34 |
|
35 |
Ghana |
27 |
|
36 |
Idaho |
42 |
|
37 |
Minnesota |
55 |
|
38 |
Colorado |
61 |
|
39 |
Brazil |
21 |
|
40 |
NWT |
49 |
|
41 |
China |
54 |
|
42 |
Burkina Faso |
20 |
|
43 |
Zambia |
23 |
|
44 |
Nunavut |
37 |
|
45 |
New Zealand |
62 |
|
46 |
Colombia |
35 |
|
47 |
Panama |
30 |
|
48 |
Tanzania |
22 |
|
49 |
South Africa |
47 |
|
50 |
Turkey |
18 |
|
51 |
Washington |
66 |
|
52 |
Montana |
63 |
|
53 |
Russia |
53 |
|
54 |
California |
65 |
|
55 |
Mongolia |
57 |
|
56 |
Kazakhstan |
40 |
|
57 |
Argentina |
52 |
|
58 |
New Mexico |
43 |
|
59 |
Philippines |
50 |
|
60 |
Wisconsin |
58 |
|
61 |
Papua New Guinea |
48 |
|
62 |
Indonesia |
41 |
|
63 |
DRC (Congo) |
56 |
|
64 |
Kyrgyzstan |
70 |
|
65 |
Zimbabwe |
71 |
|
66 |
Bolivia |
64 |
|
67 |
India |
60 |
|
68 |
Honduras |
67 |
|
69 |
Guatemala |
59 |
|
70 |
Ecuador |
69 |
|
71 |
Venezuela |
68 |
The rankings above
are from a reverse engineered analytical review by Madison
Avenue Research of methodology used by the Fraser Institute
in it's report, the full mining survey report is available
here. |
|
Commodities Commentary and
Gold Price Forecast
Madison Avenue Research
Group's outlook for gold is bullish. Our sentiments echo Gary Dugan, the
Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Merrill Lynch whose February commodity price forecast
was for gold to possibly hit USD$1,500 an ounce in the next 12 to 15 months. Dugan’s
forecast showed that gold prices can rise to $1,100/oz in the first
quarter of 2009 and to $1,150/oz in the second quarter. Also Swiss bank
UBS has increased its 2009 average gold price forecast to $1,000 an
ounce saying it expected investment demand to double over the course of
the year when compared to 2007. Increasing inflation expectations, a rapid
increase in credit risk, falling stock markets, and a wave of monetary
and fiscal policies are all contributing to fuel a rally in gold prices.
The gold options market is showing strong bullish sentiment, having
developed a strong call skew in the last few months. While demand for
gold has been rising, production has been declining. South Africa, which
accounts for the major share of global gold production, is facing
political issues and has energy problems.
Best Mining Jurisdictions
in the World
Quebec finishes first for the
second year in a row
The Fraser Institute released its annual survey of mining
companies last week in which it ranks jurisdictions around the
world based on their friendliness towards mining, and Quebec
finished first for the second straight year.
Since 1997, The Fraser Institute
has conducted an annual survey of metal mining and exploration
companies to assess how mineral endowments and public policy
factors such as taxation and regulation affect exploration
investment. Survey results represent the opinions of executives
and exploration managers in mining and mining consulting
companies operating around the world. The survey now includes
data on 71 jurisdictions around the world, on every continent
except Antarctica, including sub-national jurisdictions in
Canada, Australia, and the United States. This year, Guatemala,
Norway, and Kyrgyzstan were added to the survey.
Emulating Success - "La
Belle" Incentives to Explore
Agnico-Eagle, Teck Cominco, Osisko
Mining, etc... and the list goes on as a host of mining heavy
weights have gravitated to the number one ranked mining
jurisdiction, Quebec, also known as "La Belle
Province" (The Beautiful Province). The jurisdiction leads the pack in terms of
having enlightened and sensible tax laws favoring the mining
industry. So beautiful are incentives, that explorers can recoup
~46 cents for every dollar they spend looking for additional
reserves. The result is several discoveries and a mini-boom in
regions like Val D’Or where large resource wealth has existed
forever. The benefits of exploration in Québec make the
jurisdiction one of the most coveted areas in the world.
As other jurisdictions look to
emulate the top ranked Quebec - how would they do it? The
aforementioned incentives alone are not enough, in short - you
need to have your act together across a wide range of issues and
once you have your act together you need to be consistent and
project a sense of stability. The effects of government policies
that could sink plans for successful mining run the gambit
including 1) uncertainty concerning the administration, 2)
interpretation, and 3) enforcement of existing regulations; 4)
environmental regulations; 5) regulatory duplication and 6)
inconsistencies; 7) taxation; 8) uncertainty concerning native
land claims and protected areas; 8) infrastructure; 9)
socioeconomic agreements; 10) political stability; 11) labor
issues; 12) geological database; and 13) security -- any one of
these issues could sink exploration plans for responsible mining
interests, so it is imperative a successful jurisdiction also be
well rounded.
Case Study: Metanor Resoruces Inc.
(TSX-V: MTO) - Exceptional
Valuation as New Gold Producer with Expanding Gold In-Situ
Exceptional Valuation &
Cash Flow Metrics from Newest Gold Producer in #1 Ranked
Mining Region
Continued resource
expansion underway, Low market cap (exceptional
upside revaluation warranted) - High margin gold producer
(over 20,000oz poured to date) -
Large infrastructure value - No long term Debt.
|

Large High Grade
Ore Expansion - Open in all Directions at Depth |
Metanor Resources Inc. (TSX-V:
MTO) is a story of how talented management has been able to
make the most of being in the #1-ranked mining friendly
jurisdiction in the world to refurbish a once dormant gold
mill and mine into a cash-flow dream for shareholders. Being
in Quebec has allowed Metanor to take advantage of
incentives in a predictable and reliable regulatory
environment, allowing Metanor to explore highly prospective
projects and now actively refurbish a dormant high grade gold mine.
The best is yet to come in this
story as the high grade ore (which Metanor has yet to put
into production) adjacent to their now producing
Bachelor Lake Gold Mill is wide open for expansion at depth
and the Company has a host of
highly prospective targets in
close proximity to their 100% owned gold mill - all of which
qualifies for favourable incentives for exploration from the
regional authorities. For every $1 that Metanor invests in
underground development and exploration, they will receive
~$0.46 in the form of a tax credit. This also applies to the
upgrades to access high grade ore at their Bachelor Lake
Mine as the Quebec Government had classified the mine as
"abandoned", thus qualifying it for special incentive too.
Metanor Resources Inc. (TSX-V:
MTO) is an unhedged gold producer in mining friendly Quebec.
Metanor at its 100% owned 1,200 (upgradeable capacity) TPD
mill in Desmaraisville (Val d'Or) is now a full fledged
commercial producer as of October 1, 2008. Production in
2008/09 should conservatively come in at 25K ounces gold
and ramp up from there to 50Koz+ in 2009/10. Ore
extract is coming from their 100% open pit operation on
their Barry gold deposit (located approximately 65 km
southeast of the mill).
Metanor Resources plans to complete refurbishment of the
Bachelor Lake Mine shaft and headframe, upgrade to 1200TPD
and begin also mining gallery 6 and 8 at the Bachelor Mine …
at an average grade of ~5.5-7g/t metric (mixed with Barry deposit)
accepted valuation metrics on a forward discounted bases of
revenue generated places the share price of MTO.V at several
times what it is currently trading at now. A qualified
research analyst that prepared an estimate of Metanor’s
share price valuation in 2008 derived a similar opinion
based on comparable research [analysts
report may be found here]. The analyst provided a
valuation of $3/share which was predicated on management
executing on their plan and achieving certain milestones –
which are apparently being met, hence MTO.V current share
price now appears extremely undervalued.
Upside Valuation/Summary:
Metanor Poised for Significant Upside
Revaluation
-
Now, with five months under its belt after dawning status as an
official commercial gold producer, Metanor Resources Inc. (TSX-V:
MTO) is poised for significant upside revaluation as proof of
performance has mitigated production risk -- to date MTO.V has
poured over 20,000oz of gold (since being opened), is running at 800TPD 24/7 with
recoveries of ~96%, and has near term plans to increase capacity
up to 1200TPD at nominal capital expenditure. Fundamentally MTO
appears exceptionally undervalued -- has virtually no long term
debt, enjoys high margins with spot gold over CDN$1,150/oz, is domiciled in a stable jurisdiction,
has a growing resource base, and is currently trading at a mere
fraction of its 100% owned ~$140M infrastructure. The current
market cap of MTO.V is less than ~40% the replacement value
(~CDN$140M) of their infrastructure alone, ignoring the 1M+ oz
gold resource, with ever expanding & further significant
exploration potential, with substantial revenue projections.
Mining expert Jay Taylor, has made MTO.V one of his top picks
saying "This is a story of production, exploration, and building
ounces". Metanor’s mill is configured to produce dore bars of
gold, with a small component of silver. MTO.V has ~1,000,000 oz
of Gold (NI-43-101 measured and indicated) available from their
three properties. The ongoing exploration drill program at their
ever expanding Barry deposit is just one of many venues to
expand the resource base and is exceeding expectations. Their
forward projected EPS will likely be very significant as a debt
free unhedged gold producer and the current market cap relative
to expected revenues is disproportionate; with less than 79M
shares outstanding (recent PP announcement may change this
number nominally upwards by ~24M) and trading under CDN$0.60/share, the market
cap of MTO.V relative to its resource base/production expansion
plans and future revenues make MTO.V among one of the most
attractive vehicles for gold investors.
----- ----- ----- -----

Case Study Image 1): MTO.V's Bachelor Lake
Gold Mill - 1,200TPD capacity, currently operating at over
800TPD with plans to move to 1000TPD in short order

Case Study Image 2): MTO.V's Bachelor Lake
Gold Mill, Now in 5th month of commercial gold production
status, over 20,000oz gold poured to date since being open

Case Study Image 3): MTO.V's
Barry Deposit (the current primary source of ore for Bachelor
Lake Gold Mill until Bachelor Lake Gold Mine comes online)
|

Large High Grade
Ore Expansion at Bachelor Lake - Open in all Directions at Depth |
Note: The Barry Deposit is
a ways to a mean, it has allowed Metanor to pay for exploration
and improvements without unnecessary diluting of share structure... The high
grade underground ore at Bachelor Lake Mine should come online
after work there is complete -- The process to complete the
planned underground work at Bachelor Lake should take
approximately twelve months, however the recent announcement of
a private placement assures Metanor gets to the point they want
to be at faster and with certainty; once the high
grade ore at Bachelor Lake is accessed and processed at 1200TPD+
with at a 95%+ recovery rate, it should create an
extremely positive contribution to the bottom line for many
decades going forward (the reality of which should be reflected
in share price appreciation, likely sooner than later as the
significance of what shareholders possess becomes more widely
known) -- According to Metanor's President,
Ghislain Morin, current depth of the shaft at the Bachelor Lake
Gold Mine is 1,700 feet, the shaft will be sunk an additional
600 feet to a depth of 2,300 feet and a 20,000 meter drill
program is expected to add an additional 700,000 ounces of
resources. Mr. Morin has many years of mining experience with an
expertise in both underground development and shaft sinking.
Prior to joining Metanor Resources, Mr. Morin built mills for
several area miners including Cambior (now owned by Breakwater),
Aur Resources and BHP Billiton. The two main veins at the
Bachelor Lake Gold Mine run parallel and are 75 feet apart at an
80 degree angle. Metanor expects to drop shaft an additional ~700
feet in the near future and the potential is in place to
identify 1.5 million ounces going forward. Area miners such as Aur Resources (now Teck Cominco), Agnico-Eagle and Sigma are
currently mining at depths of between 5,000 and 8,000 feet. The
gold grade at the Bachelor Lake property increases at depth and
the strike is open in all directions at the 2,300 foot mark.
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