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Mining Jurisdictions & Investing in Stable, Friendly Regions

Case Study Metanor Resources (TSX-V: MTO) Exceptional Valuation & Cash Flow Metrics from Newest Gold Producer in #1 Ranked Mining Region

 Abridged Report - By James O'Rourke - March 6, 2009

 
 

 

 

Ranking according to attractiveness of mining policies - The ranking is essentially a composite index that measures the effects on exploration of government policies including uncertainty concerning the administration, interpretation, and enforcement of existing regulations; environmental regulations; regulatory duplication and inconsistencies; taxation; uncertainty concerning native land claims and protected areas; infrastructure; socioeconomic agreements; political stability; labor issues; geological database; and security.

 

The third column ranks according to whether or not a jurisdiction’s mineral potential under the current policy environment encourages or discourages exploration. Obviously this takes into account mineral potential, meaning that some jurisdictions, which rank high in the policy ranking but have limited hard mineral potential, will rank lower in the mineral potential, while jurisdictions with a weak policy environment but strong mineral potential will do better. This third column is important since "good policies" are of little use if little resources can be expected to be retrieved.

 

2008/2009   Ranking of that
Ranking according Name of the jurisdictions mineral
to attractiveness Jurisdiction potential relative
of mining policies    to policies
1 Quebec 2
2 Wyoming 15
3 Nevada 4
4 Alberta 36
5 Nfld. & Labrador 16
6 New Brunswick 24
7 Manitoba 29
8 Chile 1
9 Saskatchewan 5
10 Ontario 32
11 Utah 8
12 Nova Scotia 51
13 Sweden 6
14 Finland 3
15 Yukon 28
16 South Australia 10
17 Alaska 14
18 Botswana 17
19 Norway 31
20 Nth'n Territory n/a
21 Western Australia 7
22 Spain 45
23 New South Wales 12
24 British Columbia 44
25 Queensland 13
26 Ireland 46
27 Arizona 39
28 Mexico 9
29 Victoria 33
30 Peru 11
31 Tasmania 25
32 South Dakota 38
33 Mali 26
34 Namibia 34
35 Ghana 27
36 Idaho 42
37 Minnesota 55
38 Colorado 61
39 Brazil 21
40 NWT 49
41 China 54
42 Burkina Faso 20
43 Zambia 23
44 Nunavut 37
45 New Zealand 62
46 Colombia 35
47 Panama 30
48 Tanzania 22
49 South Africa 47
50 Turkey 18
51 Washington 66
52 Montana 63
53 Russia 53
54 California 65
55 Mongolia 57
56 Kazakhstan 40
57 Argentina 52
58 New Mexico 43
59 Philippines 50
60 Wisconsin 58
61 Papua New Guinea 48
62 Indonesia 41
63 DRC (Congo) 56
64 Kyrgyzstan 70
65 Zimbabwe 71
66 Bolivia 64
67 India 60
68 Honduras 67
69 Guatemala 59
70 Ecuador 69
71 Venezuela 68

The rankings above are from a reverse engineered analytical review by Madison Avenue Research of methodology used by the Fraser Institute in it's report, the full mining survey report is available here.

Commodities Commentary and Gold Price Forecast

Madison Avenue Research Group's outlook for gold is bullish. Our sentiments echo Gary Dugan, the Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Merrill Lynch whose February commodity price forecast was for gold to possibly hit USD$1,500 an ounce in the next 12 to 15 months. Dugan’s forecast showed that gold prices can rise to $1,100/oz in the first quarter of 2009 and to $1,150/oz in the second quarter. Also Swiss bank UBS has increased its 2009 average gold price forecast to $1,000 an ounce saying it expected investment demand to double over the course of the year when compared to 2007. Increasing inflation expectations, a rapid increase in credit risk, falling stock markets, and a wave of monetary and fiscal policies are all contributing to fuel a rally in gold prices. The gold options market is showing strong bullish sentiment, having developed a strong call skew in the last few months. While demand for gold has been rising, production has been declining. South Africa, which accounts for the major share of global gold production, is facing political issues and has energy problems.

 

Best Mining Jurisdictions in the World

Quebec finishes first for the second year in a row

 

       The Fraser Institute released its annual survey of mining companies last week in which it ranks jurisdictions around the world based on their friendliness towards mining, and Quebec finished first for the second straight year.

 

Since 1997, The Fraser Institute has conducted an annual survey of metal mining and exploration companies to assess how mineral endowments and public policy factors such as taxation and regulation affect exploration investment. Survey results represent the opinions of executives and exploration managers in mining and mining consulting companies operating around the world. The survey now includes data on 71 jurisdictions around the world, on every continent except Antarctica, including sub-national jurisdictions in Canada, Australia, and the United States. This year, Guatemala, Norway, and Kyrgyzstan were added to the survey.

  

Emulating Success - "La Belle" Incentives to Explore

Agnico-Eagle, Teck Cominco, Osisko Mining, etc... and the list goes on as a host of mining heavy weights have gravitated to the number one ranked mining jurisdiction, Quebec, also known as "La Belle Province" (The Beautiful Province). The jurisdiction leads the pack in terms of having enlightened and sensible tax laws favoring the mining industry. So beautiful are incentives, that explorers can recoup ~46 cents for every dollar they spend looking for additional reserves. The result is several discoveries and a mini-boom in regions like Val D’Or where large resource wealth has existed forever. The benefits of exploration in Québec make the jurisdiction one of the most coveted areas in the world.

 

As other jurisdictions look to emulate the top ranked Quebec - how would they do it? The aforementioned incentives alone are not enough, in short - you need to have your act together across a wide range of issues and once you have your act together you need to be consistent and project a sense of stability. The effects of government policies that could sink plans for successful mining run the gambit including 1) uncertainty concerning the administration, 2) interpretation, and 3) enforcement of existing regulations; 4) environmental regulations; 5) regulatory duplication and 6) inconsistencies; 7) taxation; 8) uncertainty concerning native land claims and protected areas; 8) infrastructure; 9) socioeconomic agreements; 10) political stability; 11) labor issues; 12) geological database; and 13) security -- any one of these issues could sink exploration plans for responsible mining interests, so it is imperative a successful jurisdiction also be well rounded.

 

Case Study: Metanor Resoruces Inc. (TSX-V: MTO) - Exceptional Valuation as New Gold Producer with Expanding Gold In-Situ

Exceptional Valuation & Cash Flow Metrics from Newest Gold Producer in #1 Ranked Mining Region

Continued resource expansion underway, Low market cap (exceptional upside revaluation warranted) - High margin gold producer  (over 20,000oz poured to date) - Large infrastructure value - No long term Debt.

 

Large High Grade Ore Expansion - Open in all Directions at Depth

Metanor Resources Inc. (TSX-V: MTO) is a story of how talented management has been able to make the most of being in the #1-ranked mining friendly jurisdiction in the world to refurbish a once dormant gold mill and mine into a cash-flow dream for shareholders. Being in Quebec has allowed Metanor to take advantage of incentives in a predictable and reliable regulatory environment, allowing Metanor to explore highly prospective projects and now actively refurbish a dormant high grade gold mine.

 

The best is yet to come in this story as the high grade ore (which Metanor has yet to put into production) adjacent to their now producing Bachelor Lake Gold Mill is wide open for expansion at depth and the Company has a host of highly prospective targets in close proximity to their 100% owned gold mill - all of which qualifies for favourable incentives for exploration from the regional authorities. For every $1 that Metanor invests in underground development and exploration, they will receive ~$0.46 in the form of a tax credit. This also applies to the upgrades to access high grade ore at their Bachelor Lake Mine as the Quebec Government had classified the mine as "abandoned", thus qualifying it for special incentive too.

 

Metanor Resources Inc. (TSX-V: MTO) is an unhedged gold producer in mining friendly Quebec. Metanor at its 100% owned 1,200 (upgradeable capacity) TPD mill in Desmaraisville (Val d'Or) is now a full fledged commercial producer as of October 1, 2008. Production in 2008/09 should conservatively come in at 25K ounces gold and ramp up from there to 50Koz+ in 2009/10. Ore extract is coming from their 100% open pit operation on their Barry gold deposit (located approximately 65 km southeast of the mill).

   

Metanor Resources plans to complete refurbishment of the Bachelor Lake Mine shaft and headframe, upgrade to 1200TPD and begin also mining gallery 6 and 8 at the Bachelor Mine … at an average grade of ~5.5-7g/t metric (mixed with Barry deposit) accepted valuation metrics on a forward discounted bases of revenue generated places the share price of MTO.V at several times what it is currently trading at now. A qualified research analyst that prepared an estimate of Metanor’s share price valuation in 2008 derived a similar opinion based on comparable research [analysts report may be found here]. The analyst provided a valuation of $3/share which was predicated on management executing on their plan and achieving certain milestones – which are apparently being met, hence MTO.V current share price now appears extremely undervalued.

 

Upside Valuation/Summary: Metanor Poised for Significant Upside Revaluation - Now, with five months under its belt after dawning status as an official commercial gold producer, Metanor Resources Inc. (TSX-V: MTO) is poised for significant upside revaluation as proof of performance has mitigated production risk -- to date MTO.V has poured over 20,000oz of gold (since being opened), is running at 800TPD 24/7 with recoveries of ~96%, and has near term plans to increase capacity up to 1200TPD at nominal capital expenditure. Fundamentally MTO appears exceptionally undervalued -- has virtually no long term debt, enjoys high margins with spot gold over CDN$1,150/oz, is domiciled in a stable jurisdiction, has a growing resource base, and is currently trading at a mere fraction of its 100% owned ~$140M infrastructure. The current market cap of MTO.V is less than ~40% the replacement value (~CDN$140M) of their infrastructure alone, ignoring the 1M+ oz gold resource, with ever expanding & further significant exploration potential, with substantial revenue projections. Mining expert Jay Taylor, has made MTO.V one of his top picks saying "This is a story of production, exploration, and building ounces". Metanor’s mill is configured to produce dore bars of gold, with a small component of silver. MTO.V has ~1,000,000 oz of Gold (NI-43-101 measured and indicated) available from their three properties. The ongoing exploration drill program at their ever expanding Barry deposit is just one of many venues to expand the resource base and is exceeding expectations. Their forward projected EPS will likely be very significant as a debt free unhedged gold producer and the current market cap relative to expected revenues is disproportionate; with less than 79M shares outstanding (recent PP announcement may change this number nominally upwards by ~24M) and trading under CDN$0.60/share, the market cap of MTO.V relative to its resource base/production expansion plans and future revenues make MTO.V among one of the most attractive vehicles for gold investors.

 

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Case Study Image 1): MTO.V's Bachelor Lake Gold Mill - 1,200TPD capacity, currently operating at over 800TPD with plans to move to 1000TPD in short order

 

  

 

Case Study Image 2): MTO.V's Bachelor Lake Gold Mill, Now in 5th month of commercial gold production status, over 20,000oz gold poured to date since being open

 

Case Study Image 3): MTO.V's Barry Deposit (the current primary source of ore for Bachelor Lake Gold Mill until Bachelor Lake Gold Mine comes online)

Large High Grade Ore Expansion at Bachelor Lake - Open in all Directions at Depth

Note: The Barry Deposit is a ways to a mean, it has allowed Metanor to pay for exploration and improvements without unnecessary diluting of share structure... The high grade underground ore at Bachelor Lake Mine should come online after work there is complete -- The process to complete the planned underground work at Bachelor Lake should take approximately twelve months, however the recent announcement of a private placement assures Metanor gets to the point they want to be at faster and with certainty; once the high grade ore at Bachelor Lake is accessed and processed at 1200TPD+ with at a 95%+ recovery rate, it should create an extremely positive contribution to the bottom line for many decades going forward (the reality of which should be reflected in share price appreciation, likely sooner than later as the significance of what shareholders possess becomes more widely known) -- According to Metanor's President, Ghislain Morin, current depth of the shaft at the Bachelor Lake Gold Mine is 1,700 feet, the shaft will be sunk an additional 600 feet to a depth of 2,300 feet and a 20,000 meter drill program is expected to add an additional 700,000 ounces of resources. Mr. Morin has many years of mining experience with an expertise in both underground development and shaft sinking. Prior to joining Metanor Resources, Mr. Morin built mills for several area miners including Cambior (now owned by Breakwater), Aur Resources and BHP Billiton. The two main veins at the Bachelor Lake Gold Mine run parallel and are 75 feet apart at an 80 degree angle. Metanor expects to drop shaft an additional ~700 feet in the near future and the potential is in place to identify 1.5 million ounces going forward. Area miners such as Aur Resources (now Teck Cominco), Agnico-Eagle and Sigma are currently mining at depths of between 5,000 and 8,000 feet. The gold grade at the Bachelor Lake property increases at depth and the strike is open in all directions at the 2,300 foot mark.

 

 

 

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Related Research Links:

 - Metanor Resources Inc. Corporate Website: www.Metanor.ca

 - Mining MarketWatch Jounal Review of Metanor: www.MiningMarketWatch.net/MTO.htm

 - Analyst's Report: [PDF]

 Content found herein is not investment advise see Terms of Use, Disclosure & Disclaimer

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