| |
|

Zinc – Market Commentary &
2007/2008 Price Forecast
By James O'Rourke, Staff Mining Journalist - February
14,
2007

London Metal Exchange zinc stockpile inventories continue to
flirt with critically low levels despite a reprieve from lows.
Stockpiles have slumped close to 75% in a one year period. Continued pressure on inventories is driven from
increased use in Asia, China is the world’s largest consumer of metals
accounting for 30% of total global consumption, more than three times
that of the next closest country, the United States and China’s zinc
demand is expected to increase by 6.9% in 2007 (click thumbnail graph to
the left for historic graph of China vs. US growth in zinc
consumption).
The price of zinc has stabilized at $3,148 a tonne (1.42/lb as
of Feb. 13/07) after a
technical whiplash pull-back from record highs at the end of 2006 (see
adjacent 5 year chart of zinc prices). Zinc for delivery fell $310/tonne
on the London Metal Exchange in a three month period, just over 9%, and
was the biggest single drop since July 1997. Initial talk on the street
in commercial circles were that the drop was a reaction to the reality
of increased production and new production scheduled to come online,
thus alleviating anxiety of “critical” stockpile levels and was also
fuelled by reports of losses by metals hedge fund Red Kite Management
Ltd (according to reports, the $1 billion hedge fund lost 20% from
January 1 – January 24, 2007, citing an “unofficial estimate” the fund
gave one investor). Madison Avenue Research Group notes new supply has
and will be coming online from sources across the globe, the demand side
will readily absorb the production for the most part and nominally
increase stockpiles affording price stability (many of these new sources
of supply afford exceptional investment possibilities for investors -
see our Special Advisory on Abcourt Mines Inc. and related case study
below).
The fundamentals that gave rise to the record high price for
zinc seen in the later part of 2006 remain well intact and
Madison Avenue Research Group’s zinc forecast for 2007 echoes
the forecast of US based investment bank Goldman Sachs. On
Friday February 2nd, 2007 their London offices released a report
in which the metals analyst for Goldman
Sachs had increased its 2007 average price forecast for zinc by 49%,
from $2,875 USD /tone to $4,398. They also raised their nickel forecast
by 33% and offered the following commentary “However, as zinc and nickel
supply has underperformed relative to our expectations, those are,
accordingly, tighter than expected.” … “as deficits are likely to
persist in 2007, we have raised our price outlook for the year”. Also
noted in the report is
-
Strong demand for zinc metals as a
result of demand for galvanized steel (zinc is used in layers to
galvanize steel and is not readily recoverable in recycling).
-
Inventories will rebuild and prices
will ease in relation.
-
Expect supply constraints as the industry struggles to cope with
current demand.
-
Average zinc price in 2008 is forecast
to be $3,323 USD/tonne.
Alternate forecast source for the record:
Barclay’s Capital 2007 price forecast for zinc is $3,700 USD/tonne.
|
Content found herein is not investment advise
see Terms of Use, Disclosure & Disclaimer
Silver-Zinc Mines offer Robust Returns
Zinc commonly has a substantive
accompanying precious metal or base metal concentration in the ore
mineralization of highly profitable zinc miners. Although
Silver-Zinc miners look to silver as
a secondary consideration, given the meteoric rise of silver in
the last few years these Silver-Zinc mines provide
commodity diversification and yields that appeal to investors. Examples of
such mines seen in the section below entitled "Notable Zinc
Mining Participants" include (but are not
limited to) BHP Bilton, Lundin Mining Corp, Impact Silver Corp,
Agnico Eagle (Laronde II Mine), Appollo Gold (Montana Tunnel
Mine), Pan American Silver (San Vincente), Silver Corp (Ying
Silver Project). Also see "Investment Alert/Special Situation
Advisory" section for restart of Silver-Zinc mine and related
undervalued opportunity and metrics.
|
Investment Alert/Special
Situation Advisory:
In light of the exceptional margins afforded producing zinc
mines (many with accompanying metals as a bonus), investors would do well to
look at Abcourt Mines Inc. (TSX Venture Exchange: ABI
chart).
ABI will reopen their 100% owned Abcourt-Barvue Zinc-Silver
mine. Production was put on hold in 1990 when silver prices were
falling and there was an anticipated drop in the price of zinc.
The equipment was mothballed for a timely reemergence and it
appears the necessary right determining steps and requirements
are now in place for a highly profitable operation. A current
review of Abcourt Mines Inc. is available at
http://miningmarketwatch.net/abi.htm and a brief overview is
made available in the case study section below.
Abcourt Mines Inc. has 750
Million lbs Zinc, 21 Million Oz Silver, 220k Oz Gold (43-101
measured and indicated resources on most numbers), only 43
Million shares outstanding and is trading under a mere Canadian dollar. ABI.V appears grossly undervalued with current disproportionate
multiples as inherit resource and infrastructure value per share
is well in excess of the current trading price (over $37 USD/share
in ground value). The Abcourt silver-zinc mine in the first year
alone will be on the order of 1,800 metric tons per day grading
3.08% zinc (resulting in approx. 54.7 pounds zinc/tonne produced
= 35.5 million payable pounds zinc annually) and 56.4 g/t silver
(resulting in 1.5 oz silver/tonne produced = 975,000 oz silver
payable annually), less mining and processing costs, with zinc
at $1.40, they should be conservatively netting approx.
$28M USD/annum income from operations (EBITBA). That is 58 cents USD/fully
diluted share from the zinc-silver mine alone in year one... now
consider the stock is currently well under a $1/share. (Short
Cut to the full ABI Story). |
CASE STUDY: Abcourt Mines Inc. (TSX-V: ABI) offers
insight and opportunity for investors on their reopening of their
Abcourt-Barvue
Silver-Zinc Mine.
|
Excerpt
from
February Mining MarketWatch Review of Abcourt Mines Inc.
“The Easiest and Smartest Long Call of 2007; Abcourt Mines
Inc. (TSXV: ABI)”
|
750 Million lbs Zinc, 21 Million
Oz Silver, 220k Oz Gold
Abcourt Mines Inc. is a TSX Venture
Exchange listed advanced stage development and exploration mining
company (ticker symbol ABI.V, also listed in Frankfurt). Abcourt has
come to our attention due, in part, to the extraordinary opportunity
afforded investors as it approaches becoming a silver and zinc producer
from their Abcourt-Barvue open-cast operations in Val-d'Or, Quebec.
ABI will reopen their 100% owned Abcourt-Barvue Zinc-Silver mine.
Production was put on hold in 1990 when silver prices were falling and
there was an anticipated drop in the price of zinc. The equipment was
mothballed for a timely reemergence and it appears the necessary right
determining steps and requirements are now in place for a highly profitable
operation. The company is debt free and has managed to
maintain and upgrade their properties, equipment, and resources during
the hiatus all without diluting the share structure.
Abcourt's other prize asset is their 100% interest in the past producing
(1947 - 1966) Elder gold mine located 60 miles from their silver zinc
project in Northwestern Quebec. Abcourt recently completed a 7000 meter,
40 hole drill program on this Elder gold property that will increase
existing resources. Initial results are extremely encouraging. Similarly
to the Abcourt-Barvue mine, Elder gold mine has a substantial amount of
well maintained and upgraded infrastructure in place. The geological
model the Company believes in for the Elder gold property, holds the
potential for 1.5M tones of ore grading approx. 0.2 oz of gold per ton.
The initial proceeds from the Abcourt-Barvue Zinc-Silver mine operation
will finance the reopening of the Elder gold mine. Additionally Abcourt
has exercised an Option to acquire 100% of the Aldermac deposit near
Rouyn-Noranda, Quebec. The Aldermac is a past producing mine (1936-1943)
and offers great potential for future exploration ...
Abcourt's key properties are located along Quebec's
Cadillac Fault in the prolific Val D'Or (Valley of Gold) District of
Quebec. Val D'Or is in the hub of mining in Eastern Canada. The Val D'Or
district, with the exception of Nevada, is considered by many industry
professionals as the most mining-friendly district in North America. The
Province of Quebec is judicially expedient in facilitating mining
permits and provides colossal tax incentives for exploration and tax
concessions for off-periods. Abcourt is the beneficiary of such
exploration tax credits and concessions; having taken advantage of
exploration incentives (35 cents credit for every $1 spent) and been
allowed a tax-loss carry-forward (from when they mothballed operations
in 1990 until present) that may be credited towards profits when they
reopen - several millions will be added to the bottom line in Abcourt's
case.
Several large mining players are in the vicinity of Abcourt. Either
producing or developing miners in this mineral rich area include the
likes of Agnico Eagle, IAMGold, Richmont, Breakwater and Xstrata. The
presence of these majors in the near vicinity to Abcourt, with it's ever
increasing NI-43-101 resources of significance, leads Mining MarketWatch
to can't help but speculate on the appeal ABI.V makes as a buy-out
candidate. Regardless, there is ample milling and smelting capacity in
the region that will make transportation costs minimal, whether by
Abcourt or other.
...Full Copy from
Source |
|
|
|
|
|
Notable Zinc Mining Participants
Explorers and producers that are charged
with bringing zinc and accompanying metals to market now and in the
future are offering equity investors the ability to capitalize on
favorable zinc prices by acquiring their underlying security.
Producing zinc mines that were able to hang in there through the bear
market are able to bring their zinc to market at exceptional margins
now. Resilient zinc miners that were making profits at $0.35/lb zinc and
that are leveraged to the price action of their underlying metal are
able to achieve handsome profits in today’s environment.
We have cataloged all
notable companies with current or soon producing zinc mines. The associated links in the full
version of this report have expanded profiles on each company:
|
ABCOURT MINES INC.,
AGNICO-EAGLE MINES LIMITED,
ANGLO AMERICAN
PLC,
APOLLO GOLD CORPORATION,
BARRICK GOLD CORPORATION,
BHP BILLITON,
BOLIDEN AB (PUBL),
BREAKWATER RESOURCES LTD.,
CALLINAN MINES LTD.,
CAPSTONE MINING CORP.,
CASTROVIRREYNA COMPANIA MINERA S.A.,
CBH
RESOURCES LIMITED,
CIA. MINERA CAUDALOSA S.A.,
COEUR D ALENE MINES CORP,
COMPANIA DE MINAS BUENAVENTURA S.A.A.,
COMPANIA MINERA ANTAMINA S.A.,
COMPANIA MINERA ARGENTUM S.A.,
COMPANIA MINERA ATACOCHA S.A.,
COMPANIA
MINERA CONDESA S.A.,
COMPANIA MINERA CONDESTABLE S.A.A.,
COMPANIA MINERA
MILPO S.A.,
COMPANIA MINERA RAURA S.A.,
|
COMPANIA MINERA SAN IGNACIO DEMOROCOCHA S.A.,
COMPANIA MINERA SANTA LUISA S.A.,
DIA BRAS EXPLORATION
INC.,
DOE RUN COMPANY,
ECU SILVER MINING INC.,
EMPRESA MINERA LOS
QUENUALES S.A.,
EUROPEAN GOLDFIELDS LIMITED,
EXXARO RESOURCES LIMITED,
GOLDCORP INC.,
GREAT PANTHER RESOURCES LIMITED,
GRIFFIN MINING LTD,
GRUPO BACIS, S.A. DE C.V.,
GRUPO MEXICO S.A.B. DE C.V.,
HECLA MINING CO,
HUDBAY MINERALS INC.,
IMPACT SILVER CORP.,
INDUSTRIAS PENOLES S.A. DE
C.V.,
INMET MINING CORPORATION,
KAGARA ZINC LTD,
KAZAKHMYS PLC,
LP
HOLDING S.A.,
LUNDIN MINING CORPORATION,
|
METALINE CONTACT MINES,
MINAS ARIRAHUA S.A. (MINARSA),
NEW OROPERU RESOURCES INC.,
OXIANA LIMITED,
PAN
AMERICAN SILVER CORP.,
PAN AMERICAN SILVER S.A.C. MINA QUIRUVILCA,
PERILYA LTD,
PERU COPPER INC.,
PERUBAR S.A.,
PLATA PANAMERICANA S.A DE
C.V.,
RIO TINTO,
ROYALCO RESOURCES LIMITED,
SILVERCORP METALS INC.,
SOCIEDAD CONTRACTUAL MINERA EL TOQUI,
SOCIEDAD MINERA, CORONA S.A.,
SOCIEDAD MINERA EL BROCAL S.A.A.,
SOUTHERN COPPER CORP,
TECK COMINCO
LIMITED,
VEDANTA RESOURCES PLC,
VOLCAN COMPANIA MINERA S.A.A.,
XSTRATA
PLC,
ZINIFEX LIMITED
|
|
World
Production Rising
But Affected by Disruptions
Global refined zinc
production is
estimated to have
risen by 3 per cent
to 10.5 million
tonnes in 2006 and
is forecast to rise
by nearly 5 per cent
in 2007 to 11
million tonnes.
Growth in world zinc
metal production
during 2006 was
restricted by the
low availability of
zinc concentrates.
This largely
reflected the low
prices that
prevailed in the
late 1990s and
2000s, which
resulted in the
closure of some
marginal mining
operations, and
discouraged new
exploration and the
development of new
mines.
Contributing to
relatively low
availability of zinc
concentrates were
disruptions to mine
production, such as
the 11 day strike in
November in Namibia
at Kumba Resources’
Rosh Pinah zinc mine
(70 000 tonnes a
year accounting for
5000 tons of lost
production. Mining
unions in Peru have
also raised the
specter of strike to
resist government
plans to restrict
profit sharing. An
extended strike in
Peru would cause a
significant
disruption to zinc
production as Peru
is the world’s 3rd
largest producer of
mined zinc,
accounting for 12%
cent of global mine
production.
|
Outlook for
Zinc |
|
 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
World
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Production |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Consumption |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Closing
stocks
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
– weeks
consumption |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Price
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Source:
ABARE
Economics |
New
Mines
and Restarts Adding
to Production in
2007
In 2007, world zinc
mine supplies are
projected to
increase as a number
of new mines come on
line and some mines
are restarted.
Specifically,
Kazzinc recently
commissioned the new
Shaimerden zinc mine
(60,000 t per year)
in Kazakhstan and
Apex Silver Mines
are expecting to
commission the new
San Cristobal zinc
mine (182,500 t per
year) in
Bolivia by
mid-2007.
Hudbay Minerals
restarted the Balmat
zinc mine in New
York during 2006,
which is expected to
produce 60 000
tonnes of zinc
concentrate in 2007.
In addition, Teck
Cominco is planning
to restart the
Lennard Shelf mine
(70 000 tonnes a
year) in Western
Australia in early
2007 and Glencore is
considering
reopening three zinc
mines in Tennessee
that were closed in
2001, with a
combined annual
capacity of around
60 000 tonnes a
year. Concentrates
from the Tennessee
zinc mines may be
purchased by ZincOx
and refined at the
Big River zinc
refinery in
Illinois, which was
closed in February
2006 because the
cost of importing
concentrates made
continued operation
of the refinery
unprofitable.
Higher mine
production should
assist in easing the
low supply of zinc
concentrates and
enable refineries to
operate closer to
capacity. However,
this increase in
production in 2007
is not expected to
be enough to bring
the market back into
equilibrium as
strong demand in
Asia is forecast to
result in
consumption
exceeding production
by around 110 000
tonnes in 2007.
|
|
|
|
|
Zinc
Fact: The composition of a
US penny was changed in 1982 because the value of the copper in the coin
started to rise above one cent. In 1982 cents use the 97.5% zinc
composition.
|
1962 – 1982: |
95% copper, 5% zinc (about 3.04
grams) |
|
1982 – Present: |
97.5% zinc core, 2.5% copper
plating |
==== ====
Disclaimer &
Disclosure: The information contained herein is believed to be accurate
but this cannot be guaranteed. The analysis does not purport to be a
complete study of securities and issues mentioned herein, and readers are advised
to discuss any related purchase or sale decisions with a registered
securities broker. Companies mentioned herein may be very early stages
of development and thus can therefore be subject to business failure,
and are to be considered speculative and high risk in nature. Reports
herein are for information purposes and are not solicitations to buy or
sell any of the securities mentioned. The author may or may not hold a
position (long or short) in the securities mentioned herein. This is a
journalistic article and the author is not a registered securities
advisor, and opinions expressed should not be considered as investment
advice to buy or sell securities, but rather opinion only. The publisher
may make take journalistic liberties employing the use of pseudonyms as
reference contacts and accepting information at face value from what it
believes to be credible sources. Further disclaimer and disclosure
regarding various aspects of this report / article including
compensation and other points may be seen at
http://www.madisonaveresearch.com/disclaimer.htm. |
|