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Gold Price Forecast
Madison Avenue Research Group's
outlook for gold as articulated well over a year ago (March
6, 2007) remains extremely bullish. Our sentiments at the
time were shared with Louise Yamada, managing director of Yamada
Technical Research Advisors LLC in New York, former head of technical
research at Citigroup. Yamada saw gold surpassing
US$730 on its way to US$3,000 within a decade. "Gold is the purest play
against the dollar,'' said Louise Yamada. Yamada is highly respected and
was voted Wall Street’s best technical analyst from 2001 to 2004.
2008/09 Gold Price Forecast
Our near term
forecast on gold echoes Graham Wark and John Hill, metals
analysts at Citigroup who recently were quoted as saying "gold is likely to regain $1,000/oz by
end of 2008 and to work higher through 2009-2010 … long term, we believe
that gold is capable of doubling or tripling from current levels".
Madison Avenue Research Group believes the drivers of the gold bull
market appear intact heading into Autumn where historically fabrication
has tended to heighten the market for gold. Factors cited in Madison
Avenue Research Group’s non abridged gold forecast report:
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Soaring crude oil, inflation and dollar concerns are centre stage.
NYMEX crude might hit $150 per barrel near term, which will give
further support for gold prices.
-
Global growth was able to progress as it had detached, from the
United States, which is braced for further fallout from the crisis
in credit markets caused by problems in the U.S. high risk mortgage
sector.
-
Growth in demand, particularly from an expanding middle class in the
developing world, would continue to be a main driver of gold prices
in the long run.
-
Additional supply of 200-300 TPY gold
production is likely to be absorbed by a combination of wealth
creation in China, petrodollars in Russia/Mid-East, and ETF inflows.
Total demand for gold is around 3,600 metric tons but global miners
produce only around 2,450 metric tons annually, with the deficit
compensated by central bank sales and recycling. The gap between
demand and supply is likely to continue.
-
Currently strong jewellery and industrial
demand may diminish nominally in 2008, however a willingness to
decrease dollar dependence by the central banks in Russia, China and
the Arabic region will increase; a small shift of the percentage of
petro dollars into gold investments will cause gold market prices to
seek a higher trading range.
-
Geopolitical risk from U.S. and Israel
militarily confronting Iran is wild card and most volatile catalyst
for gold.
With our Gold metal
forecast we have observed gold’s positioning in the commodity-super
cycle and it is obvious gold mining shares and the yellow precious metal
lags in the curve compared to other
commodities which have seen rises of ~eight to thirteen fold increases
since the lows in 1999. In comparison, gold has risen a just
a mere three and a half times
from its low (~USD$250 in 1999). The gold/oil ratio is now at the lowest
levels seen for decades – although comparing the two is becoming more a
scenario of comparing apples and oranges since oil is driven more by
industrial demand whereas gold is driven more so by investor demand. # #
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Update on Metanor
Recourses Inc. (TSX-V: MTO)
North America's Newest Unhedged
Gold Producer, Debt Free, Fully Financed, Tremendous Exploration
Potential, Outstanding Management
There have been a number of developments on the Jr.
gold exploration company featured in our last forecast report, Metanor
Resources Inc.
(TSX Venture Exchange: MTO
chart
news)(US
listing: MEAOF). In our 2008 forecast we
discussed how mining production is stressed to bring sufficient
gold to market and the companies engaged with this
responsibility have exceptional upside exposure to rising gold
prices, thus offering Metanor Resources Inc. for consideration
as a candidate for investment portfolios as Metanor becomes a gold producer utilizing their 100% owned Bachelor
Lake Gold Mill in the prolific Abitibi Mining District of
Quebec. Below is an update as Metanor is wrapping up batch
testing, has already poured its first gold bars, and will soon
dawn the official status as "gold producer".
Upside Valuation/Summary:
The current market cap of MTO.V is well below the replacement
value of their infrastructure alone, ignoring the ~1M oz gold
resource, significant exploration potential and substantial
revenue projections. Jay Taylor, mining expert, has made MTO.V his top pick in 2008 saying "This is a story of
production, exploration, and building ounces". For those not familiar with the
Metanor Resources, the
time to pay attention is now as Metanor's new 1,200 (upgradeable
capacity) tonne/day mill is now being scaled into full
production. Production in 2008/09 should conservatively come in at
30K - 35K oz gold and ramp up from there to 65k oz in 2009/10. The mill
is configured to produce dore bars of gold, with a small
component of silver. MTO.V has ~1,000,000 oz of Gold (NI-43-101
measured and indicated) available from their three
properties and the ongoing exploration drill program at their
Barry deposit is just one of many venues to expand the resource
base that is exceeding expectations. Metanor Resources' gold
milling facility and infrastructure has a replacement value of ~$140M and sits
geographically as the only mill located within 200 km in a gold
rich district that possesses additional resources exceeding 1.5M
oz. Metanor is also amassing properties within this area, near
their Bachelor Lake Gold Mine & Mill, and will play a central
role mining the resources in this region for decades. Their
forward projected EPS will likely be very significant as a debt
free unhedged gold producer and the current market cap relative to
expected revenues is disproportionate (analyst report pegs $3+
per share price and no need for dilution). With
approximately 73M shares outstanding and currently trading under
CDN$1/share, the present valuation of MTO.V provides exceptional
opportunity for investors. Over 50% of Metanor's outstanding
shares are held by institutional interests, amongst them Dynamic
Mutual Funds (managed by Goodman & Co.).
----- ----- ----- -----
It is not often a new gold mine
comes online in a stable jurisdiction, especially offering as
much near term operational value and future potential as Metanor.
Once the shares that are currently available in its current
trading range are absorbed it is likely the stock price of MTO.V
will rise significantly. There is just too much going for
Metanor and its future prospects, the window of opportunity
being made available by shares at the current price level (while
still available) are considered by those in-the-know as
extremely undervalued with tremendous near-term upside
potential. There should be no further share dilution or any bank
financing in Metanor's future - the math of a 1,200TPD (65K oz
gold per annum) operation dictates there should be no lack of funds
available to grow and reward shareholders accordingly.
Metanor's Barry Deposit - The
beginning of a new area mining camp
The market has yet to fully understand the significance of what
Metanor is sitting on (and around) at the Barry Deposit. The
Barry deposit is like opening Pandora’s box and has the
potential for a 25+ year mine life as the work brings forth
results that their geologist believes exists to be proven.
Metanor owns two drills rigs that have been going full out
for past several months and has
drilled thousands of holes. Currently several hundred
drill core samples are in the
process of being assayed . The
immediate exploration plan of action, currently underway, at the
Barry deposit is to extend the pit from surface to somewhere
about 50m depth - to securitize the mine for the next 10+ years.
There is also significant longer-term exploration at Barry on
multiple targets as the property is approximately 15km in length
and the zone they are currently working is associated with IP
anomalies that extend across the entire property.
When MTO.V acquired the Barry deposit it
was represented/interpreted to be a flat zone deposit, when in
fact it is now better understood that everything is sub vertical
with huge upside resource potential. The original interpretation
was likely from a section that was a shifted fault, something
suspected by the MTO.V’s geologist, Andre Tremblay, something he
knew from experience from a lengthy career in the Abitibi region
and on his recommendation Metanor purchased the Barry deposit.
Andre Tremblay is the Director of Exploration for Metanor, he
holds a bachelor's degree in geological engineering and a
masters' degree in earth sciences (structure) from the
Universite du Quebec in Chicoutimi. He's acted as a director of
exploration and/or various senior geologist positions with
companies (as Ressources minieres Coleraine, GeoNova
Explorations, Gestion S.R.C. Inc., Groupe Minier O, Mines
Camchib, Campbell Resources Inc.) and is one of the most respect
authorities in the Abitibi region. In an interview with Madison
Avenue Research Group mining research analyst, July 1, 2008, Andre Tremblay had a very
optimistic and encouraging opinion of what was being
accomplished; “I am very very positive
we will double and maybe triple the resources fairly easily now
... every time we can define some kind of
geometric volume like that we double the zone. It is going to be
easy because 20m depth is not very hard (offering ~1/2M tonnes) – if we go to 200m we
have 5 million tonnes.”
Mr. Tremblay believes there is a mining camp of significance
to be developed in the area stemming from work at the Barry
property. The interesting activity at Barry is generating much
attention in the neighbourhood and Metanor’s Barry property (and
now committed satellite properties) is growing bigger as Metanor
makes deals with neighbours – ensuring future growth.
Looking further down the road; even though Metanor is
currently working Barry from surface to 50m – shallow depth for
open pit, the mining of the zone at depth (yet untested) should
go at least to 1000m as in the Abitibi region there are numerous
mines that up to 4000m – 5000m that are still intersecting
mineralized zones.
Visible - free gold: Metanor is finding visible/free gold
throughout the Barry deposit that is unlike anything their
geologist has seen in his 30+ year career in the region. From
the initial 40,000 tonnes passed through the gold mill so far
has yield ~5.3g/t, one more gram than was expected from the
analysis of drilling going into the mining effort. The 5.3g/t
would likely have been even better (closer to 6g/t) as MTO has
since improved recovery.

Image 2: MTO.V's Batchelor Lake
Gold Mill - 1,200 TPD capacity, currently operating at 725 TPD
in batch testing phase
Metanor Resources Inc. (TSX-V:
MTO) is a new, debt free, unhedged, gold producer* in mining
friendly Quebec. Metanor's 100% owned 1,200 (upgradeable
capacity) TPD mill in Desmaraisville (Val d’Or) is now being
scaled into full production. Production in 2008/09 should
conservatively come in at 25K - 35Koz of gold and ramp up from
there to 65k oz in 2009/10. Ore extract is coming from their 100%
open pit operation on their Barry gold deposit (located
approximately 100 km southeast of the mill). The Barry property
boasts a highly efficient ore-to-waste ratio of only 1:1.
The mill has already poured in
excess of 7,000 oz gold in batch testing phase. Positive cash
flow from production is currently being be used for new
acquisitions in the area and to expand the resource base at the
Barry Deposit and further develop the enormous potential at the
Bachelor Lake Gold Mine which produced over 131,000 oz of gold
during the 1980's, it currently has resources of 300,000 oz Au
and is open in all directions at depth with plans to upgrade to
1,000,000 oz.
According to Metanor's President, Ghislain Morin, current depth
of the shaft at the Bachelor Lake Gold Mine is 1,700 feet, the
shaft will be sunk an additional 600 feet to a depth of 2,300
feet and a 20,000 meter drill program is expected to add an
additional 700,000 ounces of resources. Mr. Morin has many years
of mining experience with an expertise in both underground
development and shaft sinking. Prior to joining Metanor
Resources, Mr. Morin built mills for several area miners
including Cambior (now owned by Breakwater), Aur Resources and
BHP Billiton. The two main veins at the Bachelor Lake Gold Mine
run parallel and are 75 feet apart at an 80 degree angle.
Metanor expects to drop shaft an additional 700 feet in the near
future and the potential is in place to identify 1.5 million
ounces going forward. Area miners such as Aur Resources (now
Teck Cominco), Agnico-Eagle and Sigma are currently mining at
depths of between 5,000 and 8,000 feet. The gold grade at the
Bachelor Lake property increases at depth and the strike is open
in all directions at the 2,300 foot mark.
The intrinsic value of MTO.V is an outstanding opportunity for
investors getting involved now and certainly justifies a
significant upside share price adjustment. Their gold milling
facility has a replacement value of $140M+ and sits
geographically as the only mill located within 200 km in a gold
rich district that possesses resources exceeding 1.5M oz. MTO
has a readily expandable resource base (current combined total
is ~1M oz Au); 300,000 ounces on the Bachelor Lake Property,
450,000 on the Dubuisson Property, 100,000 (historic) ounces on
the Hewfran Property, and ~200,000 oz on the presently ever
expanding resource of the Barry deposit which they are currently
mining and continue exploring. Metanor has recently acquired
gold properties (63 adjacent claims) contiguous to Bachelor Lake
which hosts the once producing (until 1967) Coniagas Mine.
* Metanor Resources Inc. is still
in "batch testing" phase - official "producer status" to be
dawned after batch testing phase is completed - expected by end
of Summer 2008.
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Image 3: Exceptional Management
Metanor's President & COO, Mr. Ghislain Morin (right) & Mr.
Serge Roy, Chairman CEO (left) holding first gold bar poured in
early 2008. Since batch testing start up, in 5 months time, they
have increased the production TPD by 40%, improved recovery
rates to in excess of 95%, poured in excess of 7,000 ounces of
gold, maintained strict cost control and ensured a successful
trouble free stat-up - a rare feat for any new gold milling
facility. |
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This Report has been updated as of July 11,
2008 to reflect the corporate news release this week of Metanor Resources Inc.
“25% more gold from the Bulk Sampling at Barry”. The Barry Deposit
continues to exceed expectations and this news of 25% more gold,
increased recovery rates to 96%, successful completion of bulk sampling,
and confirmation the company will proceed to commercial production is
welcome news to shareholders.
Latest new release from
Company on the Barry Deposit:
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Excerpt
from
Metanor's July 9, 2008 News Release
Copy From Source
25%
more gold from the Bulk Sampling at Barry
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July 9th , 2008
- Val-d'Or,
Quebec, Canada:
Metanor
Resources Inc. (MTO:
TSX-V) is
pleased to
announce that it
has completed,
with great
success, its
program of Bulk
Sampling of more
than 50,000
metric tons of
material coming
from the open
pit of the Barry
project, Quebec
and the
processing of
this gold
bearing material
to the mill of
the Bachelor
mine.
Since the
beginning of
2008, Métanor
proceeded to the
Bachelor mill a
total of 53,901
metric tons of
mill-feed at a
grade of 5.23
g/t Au coming
from the open
pit of the Barry
deposit. With an
average recovery
of 84.6%,
Métanor thus
recovered 7,655
ounces of gold.
This represents
an increase of
approximately
25% of the gold
content during
the evaluation
of the
resources.
The Gold
Resources for
the Barry
deposit were
evaluated by
Systèmes Géostat
International
Inc. in
compliance with
NI 43-101 and
are estimated at
52 300 oz Au of
Indicated
Resources
(385,000 t at
4.23 g/t Au) and
126 600 oz Au of
Inferred
Resources
(966,000 t at
4.07 g/t Au) in
zones 43, 45 and
the southwest
extension of the
main zone (April
30, 2007). This
resource
evaluation is
incorporating
channel sampling
and all drill
results
performed by
Murgor. This
resource
evaluation was
performed with a
2 g/t Au Cut-off
and using the
inverse distance
method. A major
portion of the
resources are
at, or near
surface and are
considered open-pitable,
thereby reducing
operating costs
significantly.
Metanor
completely
refurbished the
Bachelor mill in
order to proceed
the material
taken from the
Barry deposit
and is always
improving the
operations to
increase
recovery.
Current recovery
is approximately
92% and Métanor
is aiming to
bring this
recovery to
approximately
96% during the
next weeks.
Following these
very interesting
and conclusive
results as for
the
profitability of
this project of
open pit mining,
Métanor confirms
its intention to
go in commercial
production
during the next
weeks... |
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...See full Copy from
Source |
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Related Research Links:
- Metanor Resources Inc.
Corporate Website:
www.Metanor.ca
- Mining MarketWatch Jounal
Review of Metanor:
www.MiningMarketWatch.net/MTO.htm
- Analyst's Report: [PDF]
Content found herein is not investment advise
see Terms of Use, Disclosure & Disclaimer
# # #
Disclaimer &
Disclosure: The information contained herein is believed to be accurate
but this cannot be guaranteed. The analysis does not purport to be a
complete study of securities and issues mentioned herein, and readers are advised
to discuss any related purchase or sale decisions with a registered
securities broker. Companies mentioned herein may be very early stages
of development and thus can therefore be subject to business failure,
and are to be considered speculative and high risk in nature. Reports
herein are for information purposes and are not solicitations to buy or
sell any of the securities mentioned. The author may or may not hold a
position (long or short) in the securities mentioned herein. This is a
journalistic article and the author is not a registered securities
advisor, and opinions expressed should not be considered as investment
advice to buy or sell securities, but rather opinion only. The publisher
may make take journalistic liberties employing the use of pseudonyms as
reference contacts and accepting information at face value from what it
believes to be credible sources. Further disclaimer and disclosure
regarding various aspects of this report / article including
compensation and other points may be seen at
http://www.madisonaveresearch.com/disclaimer.htm. |
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